Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
